美股为何暴跌，逐句解读美联储主席年度最“双头”发言

国际货币该基金会组织国际货币该基金会组织的题里面意思。2008年大巨变以来，量化适合于财政政策在托底整体金融业和其会很高风险病毒感染的同时，也才会通过资产市价重估效应而加剧财富重新分配的不均等，这又反过来制约到金融业停滞不前所的间歇病态，提很高国际货币该基金会组织随之而来“零债券出厂”规范的长间隔时间病态。所以，国际货币该基金会组织需要回避国际货币该基金会组织的重新分配效应。禽流感震撼的特殊病态在于，大量失业者退出了资本队伍，劳动参与率大大的崩盘，这使得官方网站比率总体极低估了真正失业水准和失业第二道。后禽流感时代，被极低估的比率和失业英美两国市场的“K型停滞不前所”特征带入国际货币该基金会组织退出更是加规财政政策的“绊脚石”。

4. Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

完全恢复市价安定还需很久，这需我们轻而易举地运用国际货币该基金会组织应用软件，使期望和供应更是好地平衡。为了降极低财政赤字，金融业增长速度可能在很久内才会过后极低于潜在增速。而且，资本英美两国市场情形很可能才会不大趋向。债券的上升、金融业增长速度的放消除失业英美两国市场的疲软都才会降极低财政赤字，但也才会给普通家庭和民营企业造成一些痛苦。这些都是降极低财政赤字不幸的代价。如果很难充分利用市价安定，损失才会更是相当严重。

审定：供不应求是举例来说财政赤字的心理因素，国际货币该基金会组织只能起到于期望，故只能通过收缩期望遏制财政赤字。里德给予了遏制财政赤字才会牺牲短期金融业增长的事实，但强调这是“两害相许可权取其轻”，算是在为后文来作开端。

5. The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

相对于2021年在历史上最很高水准的金融业增速而言——看出了大流行震撼后的金融业重启，英美两国金融业成长率开始显着放缓。虽然当前的金融业图表不一先于，但确信，我们的金融业在此期间始终保持着稳健的动能。资本英美两国市场众所周知稳健，但它或许是失衡的，对建筑工人的期望大大超过了举例来说建筑工人的供应。成长率率远略很高于2%，很高成长率率在此期间在金融业里面蔓延。尽管7同月财政赤字图表下降了，这令人欣慰，但单个同月的下降还远偏极低以使委员才会断言财政赤字的渐近线不太可能出现。

审定：如何才能让FOMC断言财政赤字的渐近线不太可能确立了？这是数据分析的要点，或许，7同月单同月的小幅单线是不满足条件的。其所指出，既要关录财政赤字的水准，也要关录内部结构、快照的路径和波动率。

6. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

我们才会前所提一个足够如此一来加的财政政策态度，以使成长率下升至2%的水准。在7同月的才小组会议上，FOMC将联邦政府该基金会债券的最终目标线路上调至2.25 - 2.5%，这是金融业得出结论摘要（SEP）对长间隔时间联邦政府该基金会债券线路的估计（录：即里面病态债券线路）。迄今为止的特征事实是，财政赤字远略很高于2%，且失业英美两国市场极度勾张。所以，还不是中断或暂停加息的时候。

审定：加息表明国际货币该基金会组织趋向受到限制，但不一定是过勾（或偏勾），只要FFR极低于里面病态债券，就可以指出国际货币该基金会组织还处于适合于线路。可将FOMC季度得出结论（SEP）当里面关于FFR的长间隔时间得出结论认作里面病态债券，2022年6同月的当前得出结论为2.5%，等于7同月加息后FFR最终目标线路的上限。这这样一来，9同月加息后，国际货币该基金会组织才从偏松朝向偏勾。禽流感最后，图表频谱较小，一个较为大多的见解指出，对里面病态债券的估计存在较小的数量级，以至于纽约联储都暂停现阶段发布模型的当前得出结论结果。实践里面，举例来说英美两国财政赤字年限内部结构来衡量国际货币该基金会组织的松勾程度，常用的加许可权有：3个同月国库券与10年财政赤字的年限利差（3M-10Y）、1年财政赤字与10年财政赤字利差（1Y-10Y）或2年财政赤字与10年财政赤字利差（2Y-10Y）。三个加许可权的走势各不相同。3M-10Y与另外两个加许可权短期可能出现背离，但迟早才会收敛。

7. July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

7同月是今年第二次加息75个基点，我当年说，如此一来来一次不同寻常的大大的度的加息可能是合适的。我们从前所左右不太可能过了休才会期的一半。9同月例才会的尽快将取决于获得的全部图表和慢慢演变的前所途。在某个时点，随着国际货币该基金会组织的态度促使受到限制，放缓加息的步伐可能是合适的。

审定：“某个时点”的具体主要取决于国际货币该基金会组织是否确认财政赤字正要具体地朝着2%最终目标收敛。国际货币该基金会组织内部的数据分析人员一般才会给一个得出结论的财政赤字路径，FOMC的组织才会结合失业等基本面信息的得出结论，反推不同时点合适的国际货币该基金会组织态度。当然，后禽流感时代得出结论更是加不靠谱，FOMC也需要将这一点回避进来。

8. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

完全恢复物价上涨安定可能（还）需在很久内始终保持如此一来加的财政政策态度。在历史上的经验绝不能对过早地放松财政政策提出了强烈强制监督。6同月的SEP显示，FOMC的组织得出结论到2023年底联邦政府该基金会债券的里面位数略极低于4%。FOMC将在9同月的才小组会议上系统升级他们的得出结论。

审定：正如我在新浪网7同月才小组实施方案里面说的，国际货币该基金会组织首先是责怪如此一来加偏极低，其次才是如此一来加过多。

9. Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

我们对国际货币该基金会组织的院会和议程基于我们从七十八十年代七八十八十年代的很高且不安定的财政赤字以及过去四分之一世纪的极低而安定的财政赤字里面临财政赤字的认识。或许强调的是，我们吸取了三个最主要绝不能：

10. The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

第一个绝不能是，央行能够且应该承担起充分利用极低而安定的财政赤字的政治责任。回看在历史上，过去还需说服里面央银行家们和其他人给予这两点似乎有些奇怪，但正如前所总干事本·伯南克所表明的那样，这两个鼓吹在大财政赤字时期都受到了广为的质疑。从前所，这些妥善解决办法不太可能妥善解决了。维护市价安定，我们责无旁贷。的确，迄今为止的很高财政赤字是一个当今世界现象，许多金融业体都随之而来着很高财政赤字受压，有的国家甚至比英美两国还要很高。确信，英美两国迄今为止的很高财政赤字也是稳健的期望和受限的物资供应共同的结果。国际货币该基金会组织的应用软件主要针对总期望。但这不才会削弱国际货币该基金会组织承担维护市价安定监督的政治责任。或许，我们需来作的是消除期望，使其与供应更是好地匹配。我们正己任此。

审定：现阶段请命英美两国市场、公众，对内建立热忱，给小伙伴们打气。

11. The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

第二个绝不能是，公众对未来财政赤字的预估可以在财政赤字的未来走向上都展现出最主要起到。当下，从许多加许可权来看，长间隔时间财政赤字预估的“铁环”还在。对普通家庭、民营企业和得出结论政府部门的追查，以及基于英美两国市场的比如说，约略都是如此。但这不是自满的不应，财政赤字远略很高于我们的最终目标不太可能有很久了。

审定：财政赤字预估在过后很高财政赤字的过渡到过程里面至关最主要。举例来说，英美两国的短期财政赤字预估显着略很高于长间隔时间——财政赤字的年限内部结构是倒挂的，这是国际货币该基金会组织还能够在一定程度上去平衡短期与长间隔时间最终目标的原因。安定的财政赤字预估能为国际货币该基金会组织伊朗政府提供更是多跨期最优议程的家庭空间，即不以短期最终目标而牺牲里面长间隔时间最终目标。同样，财政赤字预估越不安定，铁环定财政赤字预估的效率就越好，也就越尽快货币伊朗政府对短期的受压来作出更是务实的响应，而这可能尽快牺牲长间隔时间最终目标。

12. If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decision-making of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, "Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations."

如果公众预估财政赤字将在很久内始终保持在极低且安定的水准上，那么，在仍未重大震撼的情况下，具体情况很可能也才会如此。不幸的是，对于很高且不安定的财政赤字预估也才会自我充分利用。七十八十年代70八十年代，随着财政赤字的回落，对很高财政赤字的预估在普通家庭和民营企业的金融业议程里面更为蔑视。成长率率越好，人们就越预估它还才会始终保持在很高位，他们把这种信念嵌入在薪酬和定价议程上。正如前所国际货币该基金会组织总干事巴拿巴•沃克在1979年财政赤字降到顶峰时说的，“财政赤字在一定程度上是自我该系统的，因此，要想完全恢复一个更是安定、生产率更是很高的金融业，需要将一部分耐心放在遏制财政赤字预估上。”

审定：财政赤字预估才会自我充分利用。货币伊朗政府之所以关录财政赤字预估，原因是它对定价行径的制约，除此以外物价上涨和薪酬，以及彼此之间的正该系统关系。当预估财政赤字居很高不下时，劳动者一般才会尽快更是很高的薪酬，或指数化的薪酬尽快选择性，比如与家庭效率（Cost-of-Living Adjustment，COLA）挂钩。当民营企业预估到基本要素效率存在单线受压时，才会根据讨价还价遏制能力和商品的期望市价弹病态的微小选择将一部分效率转嫁给消费者，从而过渡到“薪酬-物价上涨螺旋形”。这是20世纪70八十年代“大滞胀”过渡到的最主要原因。薪酬尽快的是财政赤字的急遽，而非波动。“薪酬-物价上涨螺旋形”一旦过渡到，财政赤字预估就脱铁环了。是货币伊朗政府最不不想面临的生态环境。薪酬和物价上涨都是有胶状的，“薪酬-物价上涨螺旋形”的过渡到有较很高的前所置条件，比如勾张的资本英美两国市场、较很高的少数人谈判许可权、适合于的国际货币该基金会组织、较很高的里面长间隔时间财政赤字预估等。“大消除”时代以来，英美两国市场和财政政策制定者都习惯了财政赤字预估安定或存在财政赤字第二道的大尺度生态环境，忘却了“薪酬-财政赤字螺旋形”的很高风险。直到2022年7同月例才会，FOMC几乎否认“薪酬-财政赤字螺旋形”是财政赤字的一个心理因素，当然这也是英美两国市场的认同，但不可否认很高风险正要滋生。

13. One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention."3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: "For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions."4

关于具体财政赤字可能才会怎样制约人们对其未来走向的预估，一个依赖于的总括建立在“形而上学忽视”的概念上。当成长率过后很高企时，普通家庭和民营企业需要密切关录并将成长率纳入他们的金融业议程。当成长率处于很高点且安定时，他们可以更是受限制地将安全感集里面在其他地方。前所国际货币该基金会组织总干事艾伦·格林斯潘这样说:“从具体相反来看，市价安定这样一来平均市价水准的预估波动足够地小，足够地平滑，它们不才会实质病态地制约民营企业和普通家庭的金融议程。”

审定：是非“形而上学忽视”，就是留意大概财政赤字的存在，不将其纳入到金融、金融业议程行径里面，例如：不尽快债许可权人不好求更是很高的财政赤字回报收益率，劳动者不尽快更是很高的薪酬、民营企业不指明更是很高的物价上涨等。

14. Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

当然，迄今为止近乎自已都在关录财政赤字，这凸显了一种特殊的很高风险：很高财政赤字过后的间隔时间越长，对财政赤字上升的预估更为更是加蔑视的可能病态就越大。

15. That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

这就引出了我的第三个绝不能，那就是我们需要坚持下去，直到临时工收尾。在历史上表明，随着很高财政赤字在薪酬和物价上涨的制定里面更为更是加蔑视，降极低财政赤字的失业效率可能才会随着间隔时间的推迟增加。七十八十年代80八十年代以前沃克效财政赤字的急于是在当年所15年多次降极低财政赤字的尝试受挫最后暴发的。为了遏制很高财政赤字，需长间隔时间监督更是加如此一来加的国际货币该基金会组织，以将财政赤字升至极低而安定的水准——这是2021年冬天之前所的常态。我们的最终目标是通过从前所果断的军事行动来防止这样的结果（长间隔时间实行如此一来加财政政策）。

审定：坚定希望，谨防在财政赤字刚刚有点下降的苗头，或者单线的急遽还牢固的时候就理解彻底改变如此一来加的财政政策态度，以许可权衡失业/金融业增长最终目标。

16. These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

这些经验绝不能在指导我们使用我们的应用软件来降极低成长率。我们正要放任轻而易举而短间隔时间的措施来调节期望，使其更是好地与物资供应始终保持一致，并安定财政赤字预估。我们将在此期间努力，直到我们断言收尾了这项临时工。

（文章仅都是作者见解。责编邮箱：yanguihua@Jiemian.com。）

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